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Turkish Unrest and Bitcoin Volume=Regime Troubles

Citizens when they are witness to economic unrest in their own countries usually begin to buy foreign currency and keep it in reserve against the devaluation of their own currency. This is normal during troubled times, and we were beginning to see the same thing occurring in Turkey. However, Erdogan thisa number of weeks ago called for all Turkish citizens to sell their foreign currencies to prop up the Lira. This sort of a call is usually code for “we are going to confiscate your money when we find it” so you better sell it now, as well as a tacit admission that the Lira’s value is in serious trouble. Thus, the economy as well.
In my opinion due to the tacit threat of monetary confiscation we are now seeing a flight to bitcoin and this is also a clue to the unrest that Erdogan is dealing with. Why is this problematic? Since Turkey can’t confiscate currency that is online and untraceable. We can see the flight to Bitcoin by comparing Forex crosses against bitcoin volume.
In this light we can see a trend whereby that out of the top 8 Bitcoin traded countries/currency (USD, JPY, EURO, GBD, KRW, PLN, TRY, RUB/RUR) only 4 (USD, JPY, EURO and GBD) are in the top 8 Forex pairings. The others are minor currencies.
The Top 8 Forex crosses are:
EUUSD 37% of total volume
USD/JPY 13% of total volume
GBD/USD 12% of total volume
AUD/USD 6% of total volume
USD/CHF 5% of total volume
USD/CAD 4% of total volume
EUJPY 2% of total volume
EUCHF 2 % of total volume
Based upon the comparison between the Bitcoin and Forex Volume we can conclude that there is a feeling of unrest in Korea, Poland, Russia and Turkey. Why put discretionary cash in bitcoin if you feel secure! Add to this the protests, negative economic indicators and international isolation and we can conclude that Turkey is ripe for unrest and the citizens wanting regime change. This does not mean that they will succeed as Erdogan controls the military. However, as we have seen in the past (example the revolution in Egypt) once the upper echelon of the army personally starts to feel the economic results of its leaders’ policies and the people start to demand change, the military almost always sides with the people for their own self-preservation and the betterment of the country they serve.
submitted by profblockchaindfw to economy [link] [comments]

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook, (after a massively successful trendline bounce)

Last week I posted a potential trendline bounce setup on USD/CHF. You could say it worked out rather well.
It took a couple of days to hit my target of 0.94, but I'm actually still in this trade, sort of. I've taken most off my position, and then added again when we returned to 0.952 briefly. Having said that, I was probably caught up in the heat of the moment, and 0.95 would have been a better re-entry point.
There's also a case for the bears here, so let's look at the set ups for USD/CHF.
8Hr Chart:
http://i.imgur.com/bZCNoTM.png
That last 8Hr candle is a bull's worst nightmare, so why am I still in this trade? The break of the wedge is encouraging, sure, but the larger wedge top has halted advances for now. We could easily see 0.9500 or even 0.9420/00 early in the week if the dollar rally loses steam. But here's why it might not. That means it's time to...
Talk About Fundamentals!
Why did the US Dollar rally so much? There are a lot of ideas floating around. It wasn't broad-based risk aversion, although it looked like it if you were watching the Aussie and the Pound. What most likely caused it was the search for yield, as investors lost confidence in Japanese government bonds, and the US economy started to look even healthier. Good jobs numbers mean a chance of tapering QE sooner than expected, which is one of the only things propping up the riskier assets.
Stocks didn't follow through, which leaves me suspicious. The Yen crosses were actually up (although in a much more muted fashion than USD/JPY). But the most telling sign comes from EUUSD.
I'm gonna get a little ahead of myself here and take a page from Jamie Saettele's book (DailyFX). EUUSD and USD/CHF have always been highly negatively correlated. That correlation breaks down sometimes, but it's usually there. When we have highly correlated assets, we can look to the correlated asset for confirmation of a big move in the first asset. A good example is gold and silver. If gold makes a new high but silver does not confirm that new high with its own, then chances are the next move in gold is down.
So if we get a night high in USD/CHF, we're looking for a new low in EUUSD. And we got it.
Price went briefly down to 1.2950. Here's the 8hr chart of EUUSD showing USD/CHF in white:
http://i.imgur.com/Xmcn3Bq.png
So the next move for both of these, in the medium term, is probably a continuation of Friday's moves. However, as you can see EUUSD looks to be bouncing off its trendline, and USD/CHF failed to break close above the larger wedge top. This leaves some doubt as to this week's likely moves.
USD/CHF Trade Set Ups
There's a case for both bulls and bears. If you believe that this dollar move was impulsive and likely to retrace, there are sell signals aplenty. Trade would be simple:
Sell at market, with a stop above 0.963, targeting 0.945 initially (former wedge top which could act as interim support) and then 0.9300 (ascending wedge bottom).
However, I believe that what is happening is something of a paradigm shift, as investors finally start to click that their best chance of reliable yield is in US Treasuries. I would like to see the move confirmed by a EUUSD trendline break, and a similar move from the S&P500. If we do get that, expect the larger wedge to break, and for this pair to enjoy a lot more upside.
I am currently long from 0.9271. I took a third off at 0.94, another third off at 0.9550, my final target is open, and I am so fucking smug right now. I added at 0.9520, and will add a final third (bringing me back to the original position size) if we see the 0.9500/0.9460 area again. I intend to hold this trade until I am stopped out, either by a full retracement, or because my trailing stop was hit. I will trail the stop manually whenever new lows are formed.
This means I will be trailed out by the creation of a lower low - an indication that party time is over.
Happy trading!
submitted by NormanConquest to Forex [link] [comments]

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